RADIO INK ARTICLE, October 31, 2008; "We're Down, They're up" and RICK'S RESPONSE

RADIO INK, Friday, October 31, 2008

Analyst: No Ad Recovery Until 2010

NEW YORK -- October 30, 2008: BMO Capital Markets analyst Lee Westerfield said in a note Thursday that a severe recession is "unavoidable," and predicted, "A deeper, wider, and more severe slump is upon us, pressured by discontinuous auto and retail marketing, and lapsing business investment."

He revised his ad-growth forecast to down 1.1 percent in 2008 and down 1.9 percent in 2009, with a recovery of plus 5 percent in 2010. Ad spending recovery before 2010 is "unlikely," he writes.

For radio, Westerfield sees an 8.2 percent in ad revenue for this year, a 7.6 percent decline in 2009, and a 0.2 percent uptick in 2010. He projects Internet ad growth of 13.1 percent this year, 12.9 percent in 2009, and 20.5 percent in 2010 -- slower than the recent five-year trend.

RICK’S RESPONSE, October 30, 2008
A dark prediction, indeed, in terms of the declining ad revenue for radio. But how about the good news? A prediction of growth of almost 54% (compounded) in internet revenue through 2010? Hey, how do we, as broadcasters, get our fingers into that fast growing pie?
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